So here's a look at how the picks will break down on Thursday night in Madison Square Garden. In a draft with a pool of talent that one General Manager called "the worst in decades", some lucky team will still surface with a guaranteed seat filler and future All-Star in point guard Brandon Jennings, and one of the best shooters/scorers in recent college history in sharpshooter turned point guard Stephen Curry. And with no further ado, here is the closest thing you'll get to a surefire mock draft:
1. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin 6'10 PF Oklahoma
Last year Griffin did the NCAA a huge favor. By keeping his name out of the draft in 2008, a year in which he would have been a surefire lottery pick, and returning for his sophomore season at Oklahoma, Griffin proved the value of a top prospect staying in school to develop. Meanwhile, his talent and work ethic during an utterly dominant 2008-09 season cemented his status as a guaranteed number 1 overall pick. Even when Lebron James made the jump from high school to the pros in 2003, a small camp formed that believed that the Cavaliers should take the college-proven commodity in Carmelo Anthony. This year's lottery was similar to the 1997 Tim Duncan sweepstakes - winner take all.
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Hasheem Thabeet 7'3 C Connecticut
This one is tricky because all indications point to the Grizzlies trading this pick. Memphis isn't in a bad spot right now with the ever-attacking OJ Mayo and versatile forward Rudy Gay manning the wings. Whether the Grizzlies trade the pick down to acquire some veteran help or hold onto the pick, I see the number 2 slot going to the only true center worth of a lottery pick in the draft. Many people see Thabeet as a future Dikembe Mutombo type. Unfortunately, I see Desagana Diop comparisons in his future. Yeah so there's that...
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: James Harden 6'5 G Arizona St.
There is a spreading belief that the Thunder will take 19-year-old point guard Ricky Rubio with this pick, but I personally believe GM Sam Presti is too smart to risk playing games with the confidence of Russell Westbrook who showed extreme promise at the position in his rookie year. Instead, Presti who has been known to wheel and deal on draft day, will probably sit tight this time around and take James Harden who is capable of being effective even without the ball in his hands. Harden, who showed in March that he is not completely comfortable yet with the bright lights on, will work out better as a third or fourth option to the rising stars already in place on the Thunder roster.
4. Sacramento Kings: Ricky Rubio 6'4 PG Spain
And finally the classic NBA picks start. This is where the first major mistake will be made when the Kings take Rubio, a self proclaimed "child prodigy" and a kid who has already been playing in front of standing room only crowds in Spain for years, and ship him to one of the smallest markets in the league. Not only will scorer Kevin Martin grow tired of his tendency to dribble the ball two or three seconds too long in the shot-clock, but Rubio will be a liability on defense due to his weak frame and his lack of knowledge in running half-court offenses will be exposed.
5. Washington Wizards: Jordan Hill 6'10 PF/C Arizona
Doesn't it seem like the Wizards are looking to "get tougher up front" and "build front-court depth" every year in the draft? Well don't expect the trend to fade out this year. It's too bad the Wizards fired innovative offensive mind Eddie Jordan instead of addressing the real problem - the Wizard's franchise guard Gilbert Arenas is offically injury plagued and it's time to start over.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves: Tyreke Evans 6'5 PG/SG Memphis
Let's face it guys, combo guard Randy Foye aka "the next Dwyane Wade" as he was deemed during the pre-2006 draft hype, was a failed experiment. With a new group running the team, the Timberwolves won't hesitate to take the real version of what Foye was supposed to be: a natural scoring 2-guard with point guard ball handling and team-running capabilities.
7. Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry 6'3 PG/SG Davidson
Don Nelson's offense and Curry are a match made in basketball heaven. Not only will Curry's newly-developed point guard abilities and lights out shooting mesh perfectly with Nelson's system, but fellow guard Monta Ellis won't be so embarrased anymore when he gets carded at the Oakland clubs on nights out with the team.
8. New York Knicks: Brandon Jennings 6'2 PG Italy
Well Mike D'Antoni here is the report. The bad news: you missed out on the guy you really wanted, Curry, who would have one day been more Steve Nash than Steve Nash running your 'Seven Seconds or Less' all out blitz offense, with a dunk here and there in the open court for good measure. The good news: you got a guy who has been unfairly underrated for his tough adjustment to life in Europe who was noted as being a full step quicker and exponentially more confident then his point guard counterparts at the Minnesota PG tryout this past week. Both of these guys, Jennings and Curry, will be stars in this league...you heard it here first.
9. Toronto Raptors: Jonny Flynn 6' PG Syracuse
Ok Jonny so you're not really six feet...we know. Ok you're not as good a shooter as you pretended to be in the Big East tournament when you gutted out six overtimes in one game and put the entire state of New York on your back on National television...we know. Ok so there's really no difference between you and Ty Lawson except that he was consistent the entire year, looks substantially stronger than you going to the rim, completely stole the spotlight from teammate Tyler Hansbrough in what was supposed to be Hansbrough's senior year and REALLY gutted it out the whole season and through the NCAA tournament en route to an ACC Player of the Year award and a National Championship. Trust me, we know. But why are you here in the top ten and Lawson isn't? Sorry, no punchline. I don't get it either. Moving on...
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jrue Holiday 6'4 PG UCLA
The next two guys have NBA Commissioner David Stern to thank for costing them several million dollars as Holiday and fellow high school phenom DeMar DeRozan drastically underwhelmed in their one year college stints. Whereas both players were considered top five talents had they been allowed to enter the draft straight out of high school, Stern's rule requiring prospects to be at least 19 years of age was equally exposing for both players. Somehow Holiday's averages of 8 points and 3 rebounds per game still weren't enough to dampen excitement over Holiday who floundered at the shooting guard position in college. Strange. Both the Bucks and Holiday can thank fellow former Bruin Russell Westbrook for this. Unfortunately, Westbrook is an infinitely better player.
11. New Jersey Nets: DeMar DeRozan 6'6 SG USC
Like Holiday, DeRozan will ride memories of his outstanding high school production against drastically weaker talent into the lottery ahead of proven players like Big East Co-Player of the Year DeJuan Blair and the aforementioned Lawson. Folks, there is a reason why the same teams continue to choose early in the draft every year. It would make sense though for the player that scouts described as "the next Vince Carter" during his senior year of high school to replace the player currently known as "the real Vince Carter" as the latter is surely on his way out of the Nation's Armpit. Sadly, DeRozan is more like a poor man's Carter without a reliable jump shot. Think - Desmond Mason.
12. Charlotte Bobcats: Gerald Henderson 6'5 SG Duke
Henderson can shoot, slash and defend and carried the load for the Blue Devils offensively on many occasions during his junior year. He seems like the logical pick and has said all the right things to merit a selection by the Bobcats who are in need of a reliable scorer from the wing after the midseason departure of Jason Richardson. Hopefully Larry Brown can look past the whole North Carolina-Duke thing. Hopefully Michael Jordan will have nothing to do with this decision. However, if Jordan is in charge of the pick I reserve the right to have Greivis Vasquez of Maryland penciled into my mock as he has already withdrawn his name and I am certain Jordan has no idea of this.
13. Indiana Pacers: DeJuan Blair 6'7 PF Pittsburgh
After dominating this draft's top center prospect and the collective Big East crew of big men
throughout his sophomore season with the exception of Luke Harangody who withdrew his name on account of injury (stiff whiteness) is there any way Blair falls lower than 13th overall?Blair has his body in its best shape ever and measured a 7' plus wingspan in the pre-draft player combine. He has allayed most of the fears about his conditioning and dedication in workouts and seems to fit the bill as the next solid undersized, tough, scoring power forward in the Paul Millsap/Carl Landry mold.
14. Phoenix Suns: Ty Lawson 6'0 PG UNC
Ok, six feet? No way. But we all know Shaq is out of town and the Suns will be looking to push the ball on four out of every five possessions as they have pre and post Terry Porter's short campaign as head coach. With Lawson on the roster Nash will be able to take longer breathers as he turns 36 in February and the Suns may be even speedier up and down the floor with Lawson in at the helm. Though talks of Lawson not being able to run a half-court offense are mostly exaggerated he could be a true force in the up and down games he would play in the desert.
15. Detroit Pistons: BJ Mullins 7'0 Ohio State
Sources say the Pistons have guaranteed to select Mullins with their pick should he sill be around at 15. This source says Mullins is the most likely candidate of the bunch to be selected ten to fifteen picks too high and disappear into anonymity in three years before resurfacing on VH1's "The White Rapper Show 2: Washed Up Athletes" with retired-host Jason William.
16. Chicago Bulls: Earl Clark 6'10 SF Louisville
I'll be honest here: looking at the players on the board and the current Chicago roster, I have no idea who the Bulls will take with this pick. They are set at the point guard position for at least the next ten years with Derrick Rose and seem to have good chemistry with Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas flying around blocking shots and snagging rebounds on the interior. John Salmons may not be the answer at small forward but in tandem with Luol Deng the two are certainly serviceable. Even if Ben Gordon leaves in free agency I think this is too high for streaky shooter Wayne Ellington. In short, I hope they trade the pick. If not, why not Clark since none of us can predict what he'll be in the league?
17. Philadelphia 76ers: Jeff Teague 6'3 PG Wake Forest
Congratulations Teague, you are the lucky point guard to be running Eddie Jordan's system in Philadelphia for the next few years. Depending on how many games the team wins, it may be longer. One of my favorite kids to watch this past year, Teague is a confident, long and athletic point guard who can shoot the lights out at times and is brimming with confidence. Sounds like a guy in Washington that Jordan coached before...
18. Minnesota Timberwolves: James Johnson 6'8 SF Wake Forest
Without going into why I believe the Timberwolves should pull the trigger on an Al Jefferson trade to Phoenix for Amare Stoudemire (not now Justin, not now) the Wolves shouldn't pass on the best swingman available on the board. If they do the right thing in grabbing Tyreke Evans at six, Johnson could step in now at the wing and provide the team with toughness and rebounding at almost 260 pounds as well as a far more physical scoring threat than Mike Miller who has been mostly a disappointment for the team. Johnson is also a former state kick boxing champion from Wyoming, so yeah there's that...
19. Atlanta Hawks: Chase Budinger 6'7 SG/SF Arizona
Taking Budinger here gives the Hawks another shooting threat in the backcourt and a player who can step in at either wing position off the bench to provide relief for Joe Johnson and Maurice Evans. The fact that Budinger has been criticized as a defender shouldn't provide much of a problem for the Hawks since, you know, there not into that kind of thing...
20. Utah Jazz: Terrence Williams 6'6 Louisville
Probably the best player and defender on a team that capitalized on creating tournovers, Williams' hard nosed play and versatility will be much appreciated by coach Jerry Sloan and co. Williams finishes well and can create for others as he led the Cardinals in assists this season. His ability to see the floor will be helpful with shooting big man Mehmet Okur and dead-eye Kyle Korver floating around the perimeter.
21. New Orleans Hornets: Sam Young 6'6 Pittsburgh
The Hornets were crippled this year by a lack of depth and scoring ability at the wing, a handicap that was especially visible in contrast with the Denver Nuggets' destructive duo of swingmen in the playoffs. Young, equipped with a uniquely effective pump fake and deceptive athleticism, would be a willing wingman in the open court for Chris Paul and a fighter down the stretch in close games. Also, the Hornets who are looking to win now and not build for the future, won't mind that Young will be entering the league at 24-years-old.
22. Dallas Mavericks: Eric Maynor 6'3 VCU
With Jason Kidd possibly on the way out via free agency Eric Maynor would be the best available candidate to step into an NBA starting gig this low in the draft. Even if Kidd sticks around, Maynor could be a valuable backup with a nose for scoring and an athletic frame. What Maynor lacks in outside shooting ability he makes up for in size and killer instincts at end of game situations.
23. Sacramento Kings: Omri Casspi 6'9 Israel
I do not know who this guy is much less have I ever seen him play but sooner or later somebody has to take a foreigner in the first round that we will never actually play in the NBA. Right? Glad we cleared that up. Plus I am dying to see what a 6'9 man from Israel looks like. We can't pass up this opportunity.
24. Portland Trailblazers: Nick Calathes 6'6 PG/SG Florida
So here's where Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard who has a flawless draft record (other than you know that Greg Oden thing shhh) makes another great draft move. By taking Calathes who has already committed to play oversees this season Pritchard gets a player who won't affect his cap at all in the upcoming year while Calathes develops in Italy during the 2009-10 season. As a bonus, Pritchard may be setting himself up to have one of the lonest and most versatile scoring/passing backcourts in the NBA with Calathes and All-Star Brandon Roy in a few years. This is all very wishful thinking but right now I'm drinking the Kool-Aid
25. Oklahoma City Thunder: Patrick Mills 6'0 St. Mary's
I watched this kid run circles around Chris Paul for about a 6-minute stretch during the Olympics this past summer for the Australian National Team, not to mention a 23 point-10 assist showing against Stephen Curry in an NIT victory over Davidson in March. Mills would allow Russell Westbrook to move over to his college position of shooting guard when the Thunder go small and would provide the team, that is already loading up, with another young weapon. Mills will be a problem in the future. You heard it here first.
26. Chicago Bulls: Wayne Ellington 6'5 UNC
Ok I give up. He is a hell of a shooter at times and he's been generously listed at 6'5. Ellington was on and off all year but was extremely on when the Tar Heels needed him most and was rewarded with a Final Four Most Outstanding Player award. If Ben Gordon leaves, you don't just find 6'3 guys who can shoot from anywhere, handle the ball and are extremely clutch growing on trees. Oh yeah, Jodie Meeks. Hmm.
27. Memphis Grizzlies: Austin Daye 6'10 Gonzaga
So much potential. So little production. Your reward. Welcome to being Rudy Gay's backup, a guy who plays 40+ minutes in competitive games and is a large part of the three man future movement that includes Gay, OJ Mayo and Marc Gasol. You are not a part of that movement. Welcome to NBA Hell in one of the NBA's most dead market towns. You earned it by weighing less than 190 pounds at 6'10. Is there a less favorable destination for a rookie? Ah yes, that brings me to...
28. Minnesota Timberwolves: DeJuan Summers 6'8 Georgetown
How many picks do these guys have? Well they stink at every position except power forward where they have two players of the future in Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. DeJuan Summers welcome to the only place worse than NBA Hell. Welcome to NBA Cold Hell. You earned it by averaging 4 rebounds per game in 30 mins per outing at 6'8 in your junior year.
29. Los Angeles Lakers: Vyacheslav Kravtsov 7'0 Ukraine
If you just ran to put Kravtsov's name into Youtube you need a girl friend or a pet urgently. Honestly I just couldn't resist typing this name into a mock draft. My spell check just put a bright orange line under this man's first and last name with a panic-button icon. This is unprecedented. No, seriously this person does exist and with the Lakers already fully aware they will be paying the luxury tax the Buss's can not afford to sign a rookie who will actually be playing next season. Welcome to the states Kravtsov. Not!
30. Cleveland Cavaliers: Danny Green 6'6 UNC
He can do a little bit of everything. Well, almost everything. He can not guarantee the Cavaliers a championship or guarantee the team will change its name to the Cleveland Lebron's if Bron Bron will promise to resign. Nothing else matters for these guys. Enjoy spending your second through fourth NBA seasons with Moe Williams as your best teammate Danny.
That's all for now, thanks for coming folks.
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