Timberwolves Draft Analysis

With the 2011 NBA draft just days away, a lot of speculation has surrounded what the Minnesota Timberwolves will do with the second overall pick. There is a consensus that the first two picks in the draft will be Duke’s Kyrie Irving and Arizona’s Derrick Williams. Many believe Irving will go first overall to Cleveland leaving Derrick Williams likely headed to Minnesota. Ricky Rubio officially announced this week that he will be playing for the Timberwolves next season, so it would actually play out in Minnesota’s favor if Williams is still on the board at number two because point guard is no longer a need.

There has been numerous rumors involving Minnesota making trades to bring in veteran leadership and another superstar to pair with Kevin Love. Obviously a rumor is just a rumor, but I have seen Minnesota involved with talks about Monta Ellis, Chris Kaman, Pau Gasol, DeMar Derozen, Javale McGee, and even Tony Douglas. Obviously, they would love to have any of the players mentioned above, but the reality is that teams are not going to just give these players away. Minnesota needs to find a way to build on its young core without another complete over haul.

The two players that have been dangled in most trade offers are Jonny Flynn and Michael Beasley. While Jonny Flynn is all but out of Minnesota now that Rubio is on the way, the Michael Beasley situation is a little more complicated. Beasley showed promise on the offensive end last year and made major strides in maturity on and off the court. As expected he was terrible on defense and while he appeared to be much improved since his days in Miami, there are still questions as to how high his ceiling is. Prospect Derrick Williams reminds a lot of scouts of Michael Beasley. He is a “tweener,” meaning he doesn’t necessarily fit at the power forward or small forward position at the next level. He will likely move from power forward to small forward, just as Michael Beasley did but there are questions as to how affective he will be against quicker small forwards. Obviously, because Derrick Williams hasn’t played a game yet and Michael Beasley has not met the huge expectations that were placed on him, we think Williams will have a higher ceiling and will probably be the better player down the road. This is the bind that Minnesota is currently in…Do they trade Beasley and draft Williams on the assumption that he will be a younger, more talented version of Beasley? Do they bank on the improvement that Beasley showed this year and hope he can continue to improve and mature into a leader for the Timberwolves? Or do they keep Beasley and draft Williams and wait a season before they decide which player they want to go forward with?

Below I have the current roster Minnesota has on the books for next year, as well as a few scenarios the Wolves could go with come draft night.

Michael Beasley, Wayne Ellington, Jonny Flynn, Lazar Hayward, Wesley Johnson, Kevin Love, Darko Milicic, Nikola Pekovic, Anthony Randolph, Luke Ridnour, Ricky Rubio, Anthony Tolliver and Martell Webster.

Scenario 1: Keep Beasley and trade rights to second pick

I don’t think it is a good idea to replace Michael Beasley with Derrick Williams. I believe Williams will be a good player but not a star in the NBA. I loved watching him put that Arizona team on his back this season and most of all, I love his competitive spirit. The issue I have with Derrick is that I don’t believe all of his skills will translate to the next level, which will restrict him from becoming the star he thinks he can be. For that reason, they should keep Michael Beasley and trade the second pick while Derrick Williams is still valued very high.

It is very clear that the Timberwolves need a shooting guard and a center. They should trade the rights to the second pick to fix one of those needs. Here are a few trade scenario’s David Kahn should look into:

Trade the rights to the second pick and Martell Webster to the Suns for Marcin Gortat, Jared Dudley and a 2012 first rounder.

Trade the rights to the second pick and Lazar Hayward to Cleveland for the fourth pick and Anderson Varejao.

Trade rights to the second pick and Jonny Flynn to the Raptors for DeMar DeRozen.

Trade rights to the second pick, Anthony Randolph and Martell Webster to Atlanta for Al Horford and Marvin Williams.

Trade rights to the second pick, Darko Milicic and Martel Webster for Emeka Okafor and 2012 first round pick.

As you can see, I believe with the log jam the Timberwolves have at the wing positions Martel Webster can be used as trade bait. I like Anthony Randolph’s potential in Minnesota but if it takes him and a few other pieces to bring in a proven veteran…sayonara Anthony.

Scenario 2: Trade Beasley and keep the second pick (likely Derrick Williams).

It is difficult to evaluate Michael Beasley’s trade value. Some teams wouldn’t take him if you gave him away. Many teams would take him but wouldn’t be willing to do an even trade for him. I assume there are few teams out there that would give the Timberwolves a decent package in a deal that involves Beasley, I just don’t know who they are. This is another reason why the Timberwolves should hold on to Beasley and trade the second pick, because as of right now, the second pick has more value in a trade. If they do decide to go with Williams over Beasley, I suggest they package Beasley and Wesley Johnson together, so they can get a player with real value in return.

Scenario 3: Package Beasley and the second pick in a trade.

This is not a scenario that many people are talking about, but from the Timberwolves standpoint it makes a lot of sense. We all know that David Kahn is in love with Wesley Johnson, but since the Wolves have Michael Beasley, Johnson is forced to play out of position at shooting guard. If the Wolves package the second pick and Beasley together, they can move Johnson to small forward where he belongs and then there is no longer a log jam at the wing positions.

Trade Michael Beasley and the second pick to Washington for Javale McGee and the sixth pick.

Trade Michael Beasley and the second pick to Los Angeles Clippers for Chris Kaman and Al-Farouq Aminu.

Trade Michael Beasley, Jonny Flynn and the second pick to Sacramento for Tyreke Evans, Hassan Whiteside and Omri Casspi.

Trade Michael Beasley, Darko Milicic and the second pick for Andre Iguodala and the 16th pick.

Packaging Beasley and the second pick (likely Derrick Williams) would make sense in terms of balancing the roster but that is easier said than done. Since Beasley and Williams are very similar, it would be hard to find a team that would want both of them.

Whatever the Wolves do on draft night, I hope it includes a trade sending the second pick to another team. If Beasley isn’t the long term answer at small forward for the team, they already have Wesley Johnson grooming to take over the position one day. No need to draft Derrick Williams. I hope they will trade down and pick up one of these players…Enes Kanter, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, Bismack Biyombo or Chris Singleton.