Super Bowl XLV

As we all know tonight is Super Bowl XLV, which features the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers. Many believe this game will be one for the ages and I am a part of that group. I've asked a lot of people who they predict will win the game and the answers I've received have been about 50-50 for both teams. Most people base their opinions off of their own personal interests or emotions but considering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not in the big game, I'll look at the numbers to make my prediction. So here it is...

Green Bay Packers

In the regular season the Packers boasted a 10-6 record. That was a little surprising because many people picked the Packers to be in the Super Bowl before the season started and to see that they had to win the last game of the season just to make the playoffs was a little startling. Mind you, the team suffered many injuries throughout the course of the season, mainly on the offensive side of the ball. Anyway, back to the numbers. Looking at the regular season the Packers struggled against elite defenses and division rivals. They split with the Chicago Bears, winning 10-3 and losing 20-17. They split with the Detroit Lions, winning 28-26 and losing 7-3. They beat the New York Jets 9-0 and lost to the Dolphins 23-30.

Continuing with the regular season stats and rankings...The Packers had the 5th ranked defense and while they were 5th in passing yards given up, they were only ranked 18th in rushing yards given up per game. The Packers were second in the league in sacks which is outstanding and a very important statistic but what should noted is that the Steelers ranked 1st in that category. Finally, the Packers defense was second in the league in interceptions with 24. These are all very important rankings to remember, especially for this game.

Moving on to the offensive side of the ball. The Packers offense has had its ups and downs this season while they dealt with injuries but managed to remain effective. Aaron Rodgers ranked 7th in the league in passing with 3,970 total yards. He was tied for 6th with 28 touchdowns and ranked 14th with 11 interceptions. Additionally he was sacked 31 times. Enough about Aaron, lets move on to the offense as a whole. The Packers ranked 10th in points per game (24.2), 9th in total yards (358.1), 5th in passing yards (257.8) and 24th in rushing yards (100.4).

Now to the Steelers...

In the regular season the Steelers dominated with a 12-4 record. Keep in mind one of those losses came when Ben Roethlisberger was suspended. Looking at the four losses (Baltimore, New Orleans, Patriots and Jets) they suffered, they seemed a bit random. The only thing that can be said is if they are going to lose, it will be to an elite team (Good news for the Packers). The Steelers defense has been phenomenal all season. They are not quite the Steel Curtain from the 70's but they were the number two ranked defense this season. They gave up just 276.8 yards per game, ranking 12th in passing yards given up and dominating in run defense ranking 1st, only giving up 62.8 yards per game (2nd place was the Bears giving up 90.1). The Steelers ranked 1st in sacks and was tied for 5th with interceptions. Additionally, they ranked 3rd in forced fumbles, where the Packers were tied for 12th. No matter what defensive statistic you look at, the Steelers will be ranked in the top half of the league and top five in most.

On to the offense...The Steelers offense is not as impressive as their defense but still very productive. They ranked 12th in points per game (23.4), 14th in yards per game (345.3), 14th in passing yards (225.1) and 11th in rushing yards (120.2). Those numbers aren't totally reliable because Big Ben missed the first four games. So, lets analyze Big Ben's numbers this season. He ranked 18th in the league in total passing yards with 3,200. He averaged 266.7 yards per game, so if you multiply that by four (the number of games he missed from suspension) and add it to his 3,200, his total would be 4,266 for the season, which would place him 5th on the passing leaders list this year. I'm aware we cannot assume he would have continued to average 266.7 yards per game during the four games he missed but this gives us a ball park figure of where he would have been if he played all 16 games.

These are all statistics to be proud of but as people say, you are only as good as your last game, so it is important to analyze how these teams have fared in the playoffs.

In three games Aaron Rodgers is leading all quarterbacks with 790 yards, throwing for 263.3 yards per game, with six touchdowns and two interceptions. He is completing a ridiculous 71% of his passing attempts and is posting the highest playoff quarterback rating ever with 109.2. Right now if your going to go with a quarterback for the playoffs, Rodgers should be your guy. With that being said, we should remember the type of game Aaron had last week. Needless to say, it was less than stellar. He threw for 244 yards but had two interceptions and zero touchdowns. His quarterback rating was a measly 55.4. So, while Rodgers has been the star of the playoffs, the Bears put a chink in his armor and exposed him a little bit.

On the other hand, Ben Roethlisberger has been a little more human-like in comparison to Aaron Rodgers. In two games Big Ben has posted 359 total yards passing, throwing for 179.5 yards per game, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. His quarterback rating is 75.5 but he has beaten the Ravens and the Jets which were the number 10 and three defenses respectively.

Moving on to the defenses...The Steelers defense has dominated in the playoffs. They are first in total yards, second in passing yards given up and and first in rushing yards given up. The Packers are third in total yards, seventh in passing yards given up and second in rushing yards given up. Both are playing well but the Steelers are absolutely dominating.

Key players:

Greg Jennings

Greg Jennings is leading all receivers in receiving yards this post season (239). He only has one touchdown and will need to not only make big plays on third down and in the red zone but he will also need to get in the end zone. I contemplated saying Green Packers running back James Starks would be the key player but the Steelers don't allow anyone to run the ball on them and I don't see Starks changing that.

Troy Polamalu

Polamalu is a game changer. There is no stat in the world that accurately reflects his impact on a game. He occasionally gets interceptions and forces fumbles but what he really does is change how opposing offenses game plan. Similar to how quarterbacks don't throw on New York Jets Darelle Revis, teams don't throw on the same side as Troy Polamalu. He doesn't make every play possible, but always seems to make a big play when it counts. I anticipate Aaron Rodgers will not try his luck on Polamalu tonight.

Final Decision:

After analyzing the Steelers and Packers regular and post season statistics I have made my decision. I am going with the Steelers. The Packers have the edge in the passing game but that is it. I believe both defenses will control the game and it will not be as high scoring as most people predict. Ultimately, I believe the Steelers defense will be the deciding factor because they will shut down the Packers running game early and make them one dimensional. Once the Packers are forced to pass on almost every down the game will be placed in Aaron Rodgers hands and I believe that is asking too much of him.

The only thing that scares me is that I haven't picked the Steelers to win during the playoffs and they have proven me wrong twice. I could have just shattered their Super Bowl hopes by jinxing the game and picking them to win. If that is the case, I apologize to Steelers Nation in advance.